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OpenAI's IPO Dreams Hit a Speed Bump (or Five)

  • Jesse Mutamba
  • Nov 12, 2025
  • 3 min read


OpenAI wants to go public. Investors want OpenAI to go public. There's just one problem: until recently, OpenAI literally couldn't go public. OpenAI launched as a nonprofit to and they said that their goal is to "benefit all of humanity" and unfortunately that statement has comeback to haunt them. For years the company operated as a "capped profit" subsidiary under a nonprofit parent which is Wall Streets worst nightmare. You can't IPO a nonprofit. But here is where it gets interesting. On October 28, 2025, the company completed its restructuring. They divided the company into two pieces. The money making side became a regular company called OpenAI Group PBC. The original nonprofit side got renamed to OpenAI foundation and now owns a stake of the for-profit company worth $130 billion and Microsoft owns a slightly bigger chunk worth $135 billion which represents 27% ownership of the company. The process took nearly a year of negotiations. Former employees and nonprofit leaders pushed back. Elon Musk tried to block it, claiming it violated the company's founding principles. He tried to buy the nonprofit but it didn't work out so that might explain the lawsuit.


Microsoft: It's complicated


Here is the Microsoft problem: they've poured 13 billion into OpenAI and they essentially run the cloud infrastructure that keeps ChatGPT alive. The new deal gives Microsoft rights to OpenAI's Intellectual property through 2032. But theres a catch to this deal once OpenAI builds a AI model that's smarter than humans (AGI) and outside experts confirm that the model can perform beyond human capabilities Microsoft's special access ends. Before they go public, OpenAI needs to explain this messy partnership to investors and right now nobody is sure how it it actually works.


The valuation vacuum


OpenAI is worth $500 billion even though they spend $9 billion a year. In March they raised $40 billion from investors at a $300 billion valuation, which is the biggest private deal ever. This was followed in August by a $6.6 billion employee share sale that was key to the restructuring. ChatGPT has 800 million people using it every week, bringing in $13 billion in revenue as well. Despite the losses, there is talk of going public late 2026 with the potential of a $1 trillion dollar valuation which will be one of the biggest stock market debuts in history.


So when?


CEO Sam Altman says an IPO is "the most likely path" but he gave no timeline. The CFO Sarah Friar told associates they're looking at 2027, though some advisers think late 2026. An OpenAI spokesperson was blunt: "An IPO is not our focus so we could not possibly have a set date." The restructuring is done, the valuation is real, and the regulatory hurdles are cleared. The company does not need public markets because they raised $40 billion privately its looking like they will use the time to turn revenue into actual profits and navigate the AI arms race without quarterly earnings pressure. An IPO is coming but we should expect the announcement late 2026 or 2027. Possibly never because they have deep pockets.


Sources: Bloomberg: "OpenAI Restructure Paves Way for IPO and AI Spending Spree" (Oct 29, 2025) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-29/openai-restructure-paves-way-for-ipo-and-ai-spending-spree



TechCrunch: "OpenAI raises $40B at $300B post-money valuation" (March 31, 2025) https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/31/openai-raises-40b-at-300b-post-money-valuation/


TechCrunch: "OpenAI reportedly raises $8.3B at $300B valuation" (Aug 1, 2025) https://techcrunch.com/2025/08/01/openai-reportedly-raises-8-3b-at-300b-valuation/


TIME: "An OpenAI Timeline: Musk, Altman, and the For-Profit Shift" (Oct 28, 2025) https://time.com/7328674/openai-chatgpt-sam-altman-elon-musk-timeline/

 
 
 

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